Daily Archives: November 16, 2008

Keeping Your Thanksgiving Table Safe From Food-Allergies

startling report from the CDC that 1 in 26 kids have a food allergy (up from 1 in 29 kids in 1997) confirms what we’ve been seeing - that food allergies are on the rise, and there’s not much we can do about it - except by protecting our kids now by giving them healthy and safe food choices.

This Thanksgiving (and all year, of course) there are plenty of choices for preparing an allergen-free, often completely organic meal. It’s amazing what can be found in supermarkets! This year, be thankful for healthy families, and these wonderful companies who help keep Thanksgiving enjoyable for everyone -

If you’re not used to dealing with food allergies in kids, it can be tough to completely understand how to go about creating a safe yet enjoyable menu. If you’re cooking for kids with allergies, it’s worth checking out informational websites to make sure you’re covered. Eating With Food Allergies breaks down the “Top 8″ food allergens (dairy, eggs, wheat, soy, peanuts, treenuts, fish and shellfish), where they may be hiding and how to avoid them. Their comprehensive Thanksgiving section features a ton of recipes for a complete allergen-free Thanksgiving meal! The site Kids With Food Allergies is a nationwide non-profit organization that also offers support and many recipes as well. Aside from many articles about food and food allergies, their Buyer’s Guide can help you identify products offering safety for kids (and peace of mind for parents!)

I wrote about Local Harvest last year, and thankfully they’re still around to provide all the information you need to find local, organic products for the holidays and beyond.

In the “I can’t decide what kind of pie the guests may like, so I’ll buy them all” department, Wholly Wholesome Baked Goods contain nothing artificial, irradiated, bleached or synthetic in any of their pies, cakes, cookies or pie crusts. While many of their products contain wheat and/or soy, most are eggless. They also have a dairy-free pumpkin pie as well as spelt and whole wheat pie crusts.

Browsing the on-line store of the Gluten-Free Creations Bakery is less dangerous than if you actually order. Their Holidays and Special Occasions page is a Thanksgiving dream, from the homemade pecan pie at your Thanksgiving table to the gingerbread donuts with your coffee the next morning. Each product is wheat and gluten-free (they are a GFCO certified bakery), and there are a few that are dairy-free as well. Double check by clicking on each product for a list of ingredients.

Finally, for something completely different, Apartment Therapy the kitchn went on a brief “anti-pie” dessert campaign. While I think kids won’t like most of the recipes, I may have to try this Spiced Apple Cider Sorbet (without the alcohol, duh). Don’t forget to browse the site though - they just had the “Best Pie Bake-Off” contest!

The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates

Report authors: Euan Mearns, Samuel Foucher and Rembrandt Koppelaar

This chart is from a section of the IEA publications called key graphs and appears in Chapter 11, p250 as Figure 11.1.

Chapter 10, p 243 of IEA WEO 2008 says this:

On this basis, we estimate that the average observed decline rate worldwide is 6.7%. Were that rate applied to 2007 crude oil production the annual loss of output would be 4.7mmbpd.

So it seems reasonable to expect that the decline rate on currently producing fields shown above should be 6.7%. Not so. The decline rate in the chart above seems to be much closer to 4%. So what’s going on here? There’s more below the fold.

Chapter 10 of IEA WEO 2008 provides a detailed overview of oil field decline rates based on 798 oil fields, but mainly based upon the IHS data base. It is written by an industry expert and provides much insight as to how decline varies between different classes of oil field. However, when you are working on forecasting global fossil fuel supplies, in the first instance you really want to know just one number. Namely, what is the decline rate that should be applied to current producing fields? Sadly, amongst all the complex detail this vital statistic seems to be missing. Worse than that, several conflicting and ambiguous statements are made. The press reported before IEA WEO 2008 was released, that global decline rates were higher than previously believed, priming readers for a sensational surprise.

The views of many on oil field decline rates are formed by the CERA private report published last year called: Finding the Critical Numbers. I had a long chat with Peter Jackson (report author) last year about this report where the key findings were related to me. In simple terms, CERA divide global production into three main components:

1. Fields in build up phase 2. Fields on production plateau 3. Fields in decline phase

What CERA found was that only 41% of production comes from fields in the decline phase, the remaining 59% from fields in build up and on plateau. A significant proportion of plateau production comes from OPEC super giants. In the decline phase, rates vary from 6% for onshore fields to 18% for deep water offshore fields. CERA concluded that the aggregate global decline rate was 4.5% - and this is the magic number we are looking for in IEA WEO 2008.

Conflicting statements

Here are some of the summary statements made in IEA WEO 2008 on decline rates:

Executive summary, page 43:

We estimate that the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7% for fields that have passed their production peak. In our Reference Scenario, this rate increases to 8.6% in 2030.

This statement clearly applies to post-peak fields, which following the IEA terminology includes fields on plateau (like Ghawar) and those in decline. But what about fields in build up?

Chapter 10, page 243

On this basis, we estimate that the average observed decline rate worldwide is 6.7%. Were this rate to be applied to 2007 crude oil production, the annual loss of output would be 4.7 mb/d.

This statement is more ambiguous, applying 6.7% to the whole stack of current production.

And then in Chapter 11, page 255 we have this:

The overall average annual fall in output at existing fields is proportionately much smaller in OPEC countries, at 3.3%, than in non-OPEC countries, where it is 4.7%, reflecting the fact that most OPEC fields are onshore.

Surprisingly, and very frustratingly the average for OPEC and non-OPEC “average annual fall” is not given. However, weighting these figures for 2007 production (OPEC = 31.1 mmbpd and non-OPEC = 39.1 mmbpd, Table 11.1 page 251) gives an aggregate “average annual fall” = 4.08%. Is this the magic number we are looking for? If it is then it is lower and not higher than the CERA figure.

Chart analysis

Using Mac OSX Preview grab, we inserted the IEA production model into an XL chart, extracted the data by hand from which this clone is made.

Exponential decline rates were then variably applied to the “current producing” stack to try and replicate the IEA chart. It was not possible to get a perfect fit, but the best approximation was for an exponential decline rate of 4.05%, which is essentially the same as the 4.08% figure discussed above.

Using a decline rate of 6.7% provides a much more sobering picture of future liquid fuel supplies, especially considering that the natural gas liquid, discovered undeveloped and yet to find components all appear to be rather optimistic.

A least squares fit of the IEA decline data extracted from their chart suggests that a logistic decline value of 4.5% may in fact have been used. In which case their analysis has reached the exact same conclusion as CERA.

Conclusion

The IEA are to be applauded for conducting and reporting a detailed analysis of global oil field decline rates. This is truly vital data for understanding and predicting the future course of global energy supplies upon which the future of Mankind is based. No doubt the mainstream media, international policy makers and politicians will be suitably impressed by the rigor and detail contained in this report, that they do not understand.

As far as we can establish, the IEA analysis shows that global decline rates are actually lower or the same as those reported by CERA last year. We have sent two emails to Dr Birol requesting clarification on the points raised in this report and are awaiting his reply.

The key information required is this:

What % of current production comes from fields in production build up phase and what decline rate (presumably negative decline) is applicable to that production increment?

What % of current production comes from fields in the post peak / plateau / decline phase and what is the weighted average decline rate applicable to that production increment?

How have these variables evolved in the past, and how are they set to evolve in future?

Low Concentrations Of Pesticides Can Become Toxic Mixture For Amphibians

Ten of the world’s most popular pesticides can decimate amphibian populations when mixed together even if the concentration of the individual chemicals are within limits considered safe, according to new research. Such “cocktails of contaminants” are frequently detected in nature, a new article notes.

Improving Carbon Measurements In Global Climate Studies

Researchers have found a way to improve existing estimates of the amount of carbon absorbed by plants from the air, thereby improving the accuracy of global warming and land cover change estimates, according to a new article in Science.

Fiddler Crabs Reveal Honesty Is Not Always The Best Policy

Dishonesty may be more widespread in the animal kingdom than previously thought. A team of Australian ecologists has discovered that some male fiddler crabs “lie” about their fighting ability by growing claws that look strong and powerful but are in fact weak and puny.

Watching The Wine With New Technology

Steeped in tradition, Europe’s vintners have found themselves hard pressed to compete with the modern processes used to produce New World wines. Now European researchers are offering the continent’s winemaking industry the opportunity to improve quality, save water and reduce pesticide use without giving up age-old practices.

Parasite-resistant Peppers Green Alternatives To Chemical Pesticides

Root-knot nematodes are microscopic, omnipresent worms that cause major damage to horticultural and field crops in sub-tropical regions, resulting in significant financial losses to growers and gardeners. To combat these parasites without the use of chemical pesticides, scientists are focusing more research on developing new, parasite-resistant varieties of vegetables.

Freshwater Pollution Costs US At Least $4.3 Billion A Year

Researchers found that freshwater pollution by phosphorous and nitrogen costs government agencies, drinking water facilities and individual Americans costs the US at least $4.3 billion annually.

Shifts In Soil Bacterial Populations Linked To Wetland Restoration Success

Researchers have found that restoring degraded wetlands — especially those that had been converted into farm fields — actually decreases soil bacterial diversity. More than half of original wetland acreage in the U.S. has been destroyed or degraded, but some has been restored in recent decades under the federal government’s “no net loss” policy.

Forecasting Rain: Radars For Estimating Rainfall Rates

To be effective, flood warning systems use rainfall data available in real time. These data come from the ground observation network and estimations made based on the national network of climate radars operated by Météo France. Today, mountain zones are only partially covered by this rain detection technology. Within the INTERREG project, a new generation of radars is being tested by Cemagref in the Var department, a mountainous region with a high flood risk. The radar is currently located in the countryside immediately inland from Nice.